Wednesday Series 2013 Analysis

Here, for the benefit of all those, like me, who enjoy playing with numbers, is an analysis of Weds series performance. So I'm probably just writing for myself then...

Anyway, the basis of this is the calculation technique I use for the personal handicaps. What the number crunching does is to produce a number for each competitor which represents what band they effectively sailed to in the series. 0 - 0.9 is band 0, 1 - 1.9 band 1 and so on.  Its based on the percentage of the race winners time your own corrected time works out at. A number of 0.0 would mean that you won every race. If you achieved results lower then your band then you are clearly improving, so well done. Obviously the more finishes recorded then the more reliable the numbers are. I excluded every competitor with only one result in a given class, but really two results isn't much better. I've highlighted some of the performances that look good according to the numbers: you can award yourselves pats on the back.I fear you may also be awarded less generous personal handicaps next season, but that's the penalty for improving!

Something that's maybe interesting is that there are several sailors who feature twice in different classes and in different bands. This could be for all sorts of reasons - some boats are less suitable for different weather than others, different size sailors and so on, and some people are just plain better sailors in some kinds of boats than others. But it could also indicate a handicap that's incorrect for some reason. A blatant example this year was giving Roy Poole a PY of 995 for his Merlin. I fear I never got round to doing the research for what it should have been for a boat that age. I've done the research now, so you'll get a revised handicap next season. The new handicap would have made just one place difference to your overall series place! Handicaps seem to make far less difference than most people expect.

 
HelmName Class SailNo Performance Band Total Finishes PY Perf 2012 Perf 2011 Perf 2010
Gareth Griffiths Solo 5215 0.2 Band 0 11 1148 0.4 0.5 0.6
Mike Storey National 12 115 0.6 Band 0 2 1077 0.8   0.4
Kevin Pearson Laser 178519 0.7 Band 0 8 1087 0.8 1.1 1.0
Mike Curtis RS 400 917 0.7 Band 1 10 947 1.5 1.3 0.5
Richard Barker Phantom 1289 0.7 Band 0 8 1012 0.8 0.8 0.8
Nick Mason Rs Vision 1639 0.7 (Band 0 in Phantom) 2 1096      
Paul Wright-Anderson Laser 170487 0.9 Band 0 3 1087 0.8 0.8 0.5
Evan Cairns Laser 168989 1.1 Band 2 7 1087 2.4 1.1  
Chris Smith Streaker 1770 1.2 Band 1 12 1153 1.9    
Graham Potter Albacore 7918 1.2 Band 1 11 1055 1.4 2.5 1.5
Mike Storey Laser Eps 115 1.3 Band 1 8 1024 1.6 1.0 1.5
Ben Jones Laser 107230 1.4 Band 2 6 1087 1.6    
Paul Wright-Anderson Rooster 8:1 170487 1.4 Band 1 3 1050 1.2 1.1  
Simon Hamilton RS 200 1236 1.4 Band 2 2 1053      
Ian Cleaver RS 200 227 1.6 Band 2 9 1053 2.5 3.5 3.5
John Magrath Laser 168115 1.7 Band 2 8 1087 2.4 2.6 2.6
Kevin Seebaluck Laser 1 1.7 Band 2 5 1087 2.9    
John Smith Laser 168842 1.8 Band 2 10 1087 2.7 2.5 2.6
Liz Carrell Rs 200 1236 2.0 Band 2 9 1053      
Cj Cavallari Solo 4252 2.0 Band 1 3 1148 1.6    
Dave Nunn RS 600 826 2.2 Band 2 13 920 2.9 1.8 2.4
Maggie Futcher Byte CII 2628 2.3 Band 3 5 1146 3.9   3.5
Caroline Baldwin Byte CII 2634 2.4 Band 3 5 1146 3.3 3.7 3.7
Clare James RS 200 945 2.5 Band 2 8 1053 3.0 2.5 2.4
Ian Hamilton RS 400 845 3.2 Band 2 12 947 3.0 2.9 3.2
Peter Cruise Solo 3636 3.2 Band 4 2 1148      
Nigel Cope Laser 13640 Club 3.3 Band 5 5 1087 5.9    
Tony Sproat Solo 18878 3.4 Band 5 2 1148      
Jim Champ Int Canoe 257 3.7 Band 3 10 920   3.5 3.5
Kirstie Johnson RS 200 1238 3.7 Band 4 9 1053 4.4 4.0  
Roy Poole MerlinRocket 3341 3.0 Band 3 9 1040      
Roy Poole MerlinRocket 3341 3.9 Band 3 9 994 3.9    
Dave Baldwin RS Vareo 220 4.1 Band 3 6 1052 3.6 5.4 4.4
Ian Peace Solo 3385 4.4 Band 5 4 1148 5.9    
Tony Sproat Topper 18878 5.9 Band 5 7 1313